Ferrari N.V.

RACE

460.80 (0.87%) 4.01

82.12(B)

Consumer Discretionary

Automobiles

Ferrari N.V. through its subsidiaries engages in design engineering production and sale of luxury performance sports cars worldwide. The company offers sports track one-off and road cars as well as supercars. It also provides spare parts and engines as well as after sales repair maintenance and restoration services for cars; and licenses its Ferrari brand to various producers and retailers of luxury and lifestyle goods. In addition the company operates Ferrari museums in Modena and Maranello; Il Cavallino restaurant in Maranello; and theme parks in Abu Dhabi and Spain. Further it provides direct or indirect finance and leasing services; range of financial and ancillary services; special financing arrangements; and operates franchised and owned Ferrari stores. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Maranello Italy.

My Holdings:

Cost basis:

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Ferrari N.V. (RACE) price target and intrinsic value estimate

RACE's fair price estimate is $171.9

This valuation is based on a fair P/E of 16.0 and EPS estimates of $10.77

Is RACE overvalued or undervalued?

RACE is currently trading at $460.8

RACE is overvalued by 63% using the pevaluation method.

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Valuation

PEvaluation

63% overvalued

Low

$129

Median

$172

High

$215

$461

Fair P/E

Margin of safety

Analyst Valuation

N/A
No analyst price targets

Strong Buy3

Buy3

Hold6

Sell1

Strong Sell0

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

N/A
Negative FCF or FCF estimates

Discount rateNaN%

Growth rate10.0%

Terminal rate6.0%

Economic moat: Very wide

Overview

Market data

Market cap:$82.12(B)

Enterprise value:$83.94(B)

Total Equity:$3.67(B)

Shares outstanding:178.20(M)

Div. yield:0.67%

P/S:11.98

P/E:52.54

P/FCF:55.12

P/B:22.53

EPS:$8.8

FCF per share:$8.4

Dividend per share:$3.1

Income (TTM)

Revenue$6.92(B)

Gross profit$3.47(B)

EBITDA$2.27(B)

Net income$1.58(B)

Gross margin50.1%

Net margin22.8%

Balance sheet

Total assets$9.84(B)

Total liabilities$6.17(B)

Cash & Short-term inv.$1.82(B)

Long-term debt$1.99(B)

Debt issued$1.15(B)

Debt repaid$-426.43(M)

Cash flow (TTM)

FCF$1.50(B)

CapEx$-499.61(M)

Dividends paid$-455.73(M)

Stock issued$0

Stock repurchased$-601.97(M)

Stock-based comp.$24.83(M)

Per Share Data

Zoom x1

Show Growth

Growth Estimates

Revenue

CAGR: 6.6%

FY+1$8.21(B)

FY+2(+9.9%)$9.02(B)

FY+3(+7.4%)$9.69(B)

FY+4(+8.9%)$10.55(B)

FY+5(+0.4%)$10.59(B)

Net Income

CAGR: 9.5%

FY+1$1.84(B)

FY+2(+12.5%)$2.07(B)

FY+3(+9.0%)$2.25(B)

FY+4(+10.5%)$2.49(B)

FY+5(+6.2%)$2.64(B)

EPS

CAGR: 11.0%

FY+1$10.13

FY+2(+12.7%)$11.42

FY+3(+9.8%)$12.54

FY+4(+14.0%)$14.30

FY+5(+7.6%)$15.38

FCF per share

CAGR: 13.1%

FY+1$14.39

FY+2(+14.4%)$16.46

FY+3(+11.8%)$18.41

Similar Companies

Historical Financials

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YearlyQuarterly

Income

	FY2012	FY2013	FY2014	FY2015	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	TTM	5Y avg	5Y CAGR
Revenue								4.19(B)	4.21(B)	4.83(B)	5.40(B)	6.51(B)	7.05(B)	5.03(B)	12%
COGS								2.01(B)	2.05(B)	2.35(B)	2.81(B)	3.27(B)	3.54(B)	2.50(B)	13%
Gross Profit								2.18(B)	2.16(B)	2.47(B)	2.59(B)	3.24(B)	3.51(B)	2.53(B)	10%
Total OpEx.								1.16(B)	1.27(B)	1.27(B)	1.30(B)	1.49(B)	1.56(B)	1.30(B)	6%
R&D								776.90(M)	860.57(M)	867.91(M)	821.58(M)	961.35(M)	982.61(M)	857.66(M)	5%
SG&A								381.31(M)	408.91(M)	393.25(M)	453.36(M)	504.45(M)	565.37(M)	428.26(M)	7%
Operating Income								1.02(B)	888.02(M)	1.21(B)	1.29(B)	1.76(B)	1.95(B)	1.23(B)	15%
Interest Expense								-53.21(M)	-61.09(M)	-26.47(M)	-29.50(M)	-22.50(M)	-24.50(M)	-38.55(M)	-19%
Interest Income								6.45(M)	1.37(M)	1.78(M)	4.40(M)	28.15(M)	31.63(M)	8.43(M)	45%
Pre-tax income								972.63(M)	811.48(M)	1.18(B)	1.25(B)	1.75(B)	1.95(B)	1.19(B)	16%
Income tax								-196.28(M)	-70.75(M)	-236.27(M)	-252.62(M)	-376.12(M)	-381.25(M)	-226.41(M)	18%
Net Income								773.13(M)	739.44(M)	938.72(M)	987.94(M)	1.37(B)	1.56(B)	960.92(M)	15%

Cash flow

	FY2012	FY2013	FY2014	FY2015	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	TTM	5Y avg	5Y CAGR
CFO								1.45(B)	1.02(B)	1.45(B)	1.49(B)	1.87(B)	2.14(B)	1.46(B)	7%
Net Income								972.63(M)	811.48(M)	941.40(M)	995.01(M)	1.37(B)	1.56(B)	1.02(B)	9%
D&A								391.05(M)	519.02(M)	515.24(M)	578.63(M)	722.25(M)	740.39(M)	545.24(M)	17%
Stock-based Comp.								0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A%
FCF								1.06(B)	586.57(M)	1.06(B)	1.12(B)	1.46(B)	1.58(B)	1.06(B)	8%
CFF								-557.25(M)	413.24(M)	-655.00(M)	-586.40(M)	-1.21(B)	-450.98(M)	-519.05(M)	21%
Stock Issued								0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A%
Stock Repurchased								-429.72(M)	-157.90(M)	-260.90(M)	-420.04(M)	-502.32(M)	-563.85(M)	-354.18(M)	4%
Debt Issued								447.57(M)	854.36(M)	630.30(M)	277.85(M)	475.26(M)	804.07(M)	537.07(M)	2%
Debt Repaid								-358.67(M)	-26.49(M)	-841.96(M)	-177.48(M)	-819.05(M)	-212.14(M)	-444.73(M)	23%
Dividend Paid								-214.07(M)	-253.16(M)	-180.91(M)	-264.32(M)	-358.38(M)	0.00	-254.17(M)	14%
CFI								-778.97(M)	-861.35(M)	-827.95(M)	-853.19(M)	-944.88(M)	-1.12(B)	-853.27(M)	5%
Acquisitions								0.00	0.00	0.00	-1.45(M)	0.00	0.00	-289600	N/A%
Divestitures								0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A%
Capital Expenditures								-386.24(M)	-433.15(M)	-393.12(M)	-367.74(M)	-413.64(M)	-558.10(M)	-398.78(M)	2%

Balance sheet

	FY2012	FY2013	FY2014	FY2015	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	TTM	5Y avg	5Y CAGR
Total Assets								6.05(B)	7.62(B)	7.76(B)	8.23(B)	8.78(B)	9.98(B)	7.69(B)	10%
Current assets								2.93(B)	3.74(B)	3.80(B)	4.19(B)	4.35(B)	5.13(B)	3.80(B)	10%
Cash and Equivalents								997.72(M)	1.66(B)	1.52(B)	1.47(B)	1.22(B)	1.70(B)	1.37(B)	5%
Short-term investments								2.21(M)	1.76(M)	2.19(M)	7.49(M)	6.07(M)	9.27(M)	3.94(M)	29%
Inventories								466.72(M)	560.36(M)	610.82(M)	714.68(M)	1.03(B)	1.14(B)	677.39(M)	22%
Receivables								1.41(B)	1.42(B)	1.59(B)	1.83(B)	1.95(B)	2.04(B)	1.64(B)	8%
Non-current assets								3.12(B)	3.88(B)	3.95(B)	4.04(B)	4.43(B)	4.85(B)	3.88(B)	9%
Net PP&E								1.19(B)	1.49(B)	1.53(B)	1.54(B)	1.72(B)	1.96(B)	1.49(B)	10%
Goodwill								872.42(M)	955.21(M)	887.21(M)	831.76(M)	856.25(M)	871.45(M)	880.57(M)	-0%
Total Liabilities								4.40(B)	5.44(B)	5.26(B)	5.47(B)	5.43(B)	6.26(B)	5.20(B)	5%
Current liabilities								1.25(B)	1.36(B)	1.50(B)	1.50(B)	1.62(B)	3.15(B)	1.45(B)	7%
Accounts payable								790.60(M)	868.38(M)	901.50(M)	956.53(M)	1.01(B)	953.65(M)	906.36(M)	6%
Non-current liabilities								3.14(B)	4.08(B)	3.76(B)	3.97(B)	3.81(B)	3.11(B)	3.75(B)	5%
Long-Term Debt								2.25(B)	3.24(B)	2.91(B)	2.92(B)	2.62(B)	1.93(B)	2.79(B)	4%
Total Equity								1.65(B)	2.18(B)	2.50(B)	2.76(B)	3.35(B)	3.71(B)	2.49(B)	19%

Per share data

EPS (Basic)FCF/ShareDividend/ShareEPS (Diluted)Book value/ShareCash & ST inv./ShareDebt/Share

Ratios

P/EP/SEV/EarningsP/FCFP/BEV/FCFDebt/EquityPayout ratio

Margins

Net Income MarginOperating MarginGross MarginEBITDA MarginFCF Margin

Returns

ROICROAROCEROE

Shares outstanding

Shares (Basic)Shares (Diluted)

Market Cap.

Calculators

Discounted Cash Flow

Forecast years
Terminal Growth Rate
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Free cash flow estimates:

Y+1 est.

Y+2 est.

0.00%

Y+3 est.

0.00%

Y+4 est.

0.00%

Y+5 est.

0.00%

Target price

Discounted Cash Flow (exit mult.)

Forecast years
Exit FCF Multiple
Discount Rate

Free cash flow estimates:

Y+1 est.

Y+2 est.

0.00%

Y+3 est.

0.00%

Y+4 est.

0.00%

Y+5 est.

0.00%

Target price

Future P/E valuation

Projection Years
Base Revenue
Revenue Growth Rate
Final Net Margin
Final P/E Ratio
Discount Rate

Target price

Dividend discount model

Annual Dividend
First Stage Length (Years)
First Stage Growth Rate
Final Growth Rate
Discount Rate

Target price

Graham formula

Earnings Per Share
Expected Growth Rate
Government Bond Rate

Target price

Dividend income

Investment Amount
Dividend Yield

Required investment

Dividend Yield
Yearly Payout
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